Vietnam war ended 42 years of true, the two former enemies Washington and Hanoi have normalization of relations and the State of affairs between the two countries have particularly strong British colonial development President Barack Obama, in the context of the United States to Asia and axis rotation can attend many on South China Sea issue. But, are far more concerned is protectionism policy of President Trump would hinder American trade relationship-free.
Although Vietnam has recently subdued over Republic stance with China on the issue of South China Sea (the two countries in January 2017 agreed will talk together about this issue more formal way), but Hanoi still needs the support of the United States of America to reduce Beijing’s reliance on the economic side. Now, the United States has become the top export market of Vietnam. Vietnam’s exports to America in 2016 has reached 38.5 billion dollars, accounting for nearly 20% of the total turnover.
Going forward, the relationship between Washington and Hanoi seems still going well. President Donald Trump has invited Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc to visit the United States. Mr Trump as expected will also to attend the Summit on Economic Cooperation in Asia-Pacific region in APEC Vietnam in November this year. In the letter sent to President Tran Dai Quang on December 2/2017, President of the United States of America had expressed the desire to boost cooperation with Vietnam on economics, trade as well as on regional and international issues.
But, are there more concerned is protectionism policy of President Trump would hinder American trade relationship-free. Shortly after the first day of the presidential inauguration, Donald Trump has pulled the United States out of the agreement on trans-Pacific Partner TPP, a free trade agreement which, if in effect will help boosted the economic development of Vietnam. According to some independent estimates, TPP agreement if made then will help increase 11% of gross domestic product GDP of Vietnam, equivalent to nearly 36 billion dollars and exports increased by up to 28% in the next decade.
President Donald Trump has also asked the Department of Commerce investigation on 16 of America’s trading partners were viewed as unfair competition, prompting the United States trade deficit too much. Of the 16 partners including Vietnam.
«Asia Times said Hanoi wanted to enjoy the commercial incentives of America, and are hoping to start negotiations on a free trade agreement to replace bilateral TPP. President Trump made clear that he wants to negotiate with trading partners on a bilateral basis rather than multilateralism. It is one of the main reasons prompted him to declare the U.S. withdrawal from the TPP.
Asia Times said as U.s. officials and Vietnam met in the framework of the framework agreement on trade and investment, a dialogue mechanism that many people that can create a framework ready to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement.
However, before a us administration advocated strong protectionism as Trump, Vietnam’s Government will be forced to diversify the market to not depend too much on one market, not dependent on China.
-Vietnam has explicitly not to join TPP, whether this agreement has been maintained by other countries outside the United States?
So far, Vietnam has yet to shed the attitude is definitely not going to join the TPP. Japan currently is trying to continue the TPP without US. and I also don’t know is he d. Trump, with the change of his unexpected best in a lot of work, do not know there is hope that fragility to the time it returned to the TPP or not.
He had first threatened to 43% taxes on Chinese goods and 20% in Mexico. But now he is happy with China. He has also rejected a China policy, but now recognize that policy. We hope is coming at a time that will have a Mr. Donald Trump returned to TPP, since this is a us-led effort and the United States is the largest export market of Vietnam. Vietnam exported to the US and 22% of the total turnover. If TPP, the Vietnam business will enjoy some preferential treatment. And I hope that Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. will rise and Vietnam will import more from the United States.
-But, in dimension protectionism, Government Trump intends to investigate some countries considered unfair competition with the United States, prompting the U.S. trade deficit. Among the countries surveyed there was Vietnam. Vietnam has will be one of the victims of this protectionism policies?
He D. Ministry of trade told Trump within 90 days to investigate the 16 countries are exporting Super to us market. Previously he has also repeatedly said that China’s currency manipulation on the Championship, but now he doesn’t say that anymore. So I’m not clear that the investigation will be like.
But if there census results after 16 countries, says Trump measures as taxing and restricting imports of goods Vietnam, it will affect Vietnam’s exports to the United States.
The U.S. now has some technical barriers for Vietnam’s seafood like shrimp and fish three sa. Vietnam will have to have very high efforts to continue to export to the U.S. market. And maybe Vietnam will have to diversify markets to avoid too dependent on a certain market.
-Diversify the market, i.e. Vietnam will have to aim to the other markets?
That is the market of the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Australia and also as the Middle East and Africa. It is these efforts that Vietnam must continue to be able to expand the market.
-When the United States pulled out of the TPP, the President of Trump has said he is willing to negotiate free trade agreements bilaterally with each country. Vietnam may negotiate a separate agreement with the US to be able to continue to promote exports to this country?
Currently the United States has begun exploring free trade agreements bilaterally with Japan and China. I think without the TPP, the Vietnam ready to negotiate to have a free trade agreement with the United States, upgrading the bilateral accords between Vietnam with America was signed in 2001.
But in terms of Economics, the signing too many free trade agreements bilaterally will make bipolar world trade, because both countries signed any bilateral agreement with each other, accept a number of different incentive conditions. If so, then keep the trade regulations in the world will become very complicated. I hope that the World Trade Organization will have some suggestions to avoid the situation is too messy.
-If not to join TPP, so Vietnam will lose a great opportunity to promote economic development, reduce economic dependency on China?
If there is no agreement on TPP, Vietnam will lose a great opportunity to expand the market, at the same time take some pressure from outside to implement reform in a powerful way. The risk is that Vietnam’s economy more dependent on the Chinese market. That’s the problem that Vietnam needs to have these measures, the option to handle right the next time.