The West fears with success in Libya, Russia will set up a template to create the affect the other African countries.
Newspapers Le Figaro said under the arrangement of the French President Emmanuel Macron, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and General Khalifa Haftar, Commander of the national army, agreed on an election early in 2018.
This is considered a good prospect to help Libya get rid of chaos and is a diplomatic success for him and the French Foreign Ministry by the Macron has held the first dialogue between the “enemy brothers” in Libya. Prime Minister al-Sarraj and General Haftar after the July 25 meet in La Celle-Saint-Cloud in the outskirts of Paris issued a joint statement in which the agreed to conduct the election mentioned above.
However, nothing is for sure yet. The implementation of the agreement depends greatly on the country to “govern” the Libyan situation, militia forces, the tribes and the political forces and different religions are divided to Libya.
Mr al-Sarraj is the character position to the highest political authority of Libya was recognized by the international community under the agreement Skhirat in 2015 be attained under the auspices of the United Nations.
However, apart from the scanty protection forces, he could not establish his Government as you like and also does not make the Libyan Parliament discretion and also no real armed forces under his command. Therefore, the position of Mr al-Sarraj depends on the goodwill of the militia forces that are currently in power to rule in Tripoli. That means he al-Sarraj just got a little bit symbolic power for the internal problems of Libya.
General Haftar then vice versa. After three years of war, the Libyan national army had regained the capital of Benghazi, Cyrenaica. In addition, his troops also seized power in some southern regions of Libya and the region surrounding the Sirte basin, Libya’s largest oil reservoir. Currently the area of Tripoli is located outside of his control.
Politically, Congress Haftar General in Tobruk was elected a democratic way and are recognized by the international community for support. However, until General Haftar to Paris, Western diplomats still keeping distance with him because they have committed to support al-Sarraj.
By picking Gen. Haftar in La Celle-Saint-Cloud and successful negotiation with Mr al-Sarraj, President of France brought the Macron Haftar General back in the same framework of the Libyan political figure that the international community backed.
This is a diplomatic success of the new President of France thanks to the good relations both on the military and Foreign Affairs that Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has maintained with General Haftar during five years ago under President Fraccois Hollande.
France had “respected” Haftar than General after his forces from June 9/2016 has control of oil Brega, Ras Lanouf, Al Sidra and Zoueitina. This gives General Haftar a foothold in negotiations with foreign partners, including Russia, Egypt, Italy and other opposition forces.
Reserves are 48 billion barrels, Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa and the 8th in the world. According to the expert, 85% of the oil reserves located in Syrte-where oil port of Ras Lanouf, Brega, Al-Sidra and Zoueitina. Libya is also a gas-rich country with oil reserves estimated at 1,600 billion cubic meters of gas.
The recent moves indicate there are adjustments in the policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with respect to the issue of Libya. France may continue to be “representative” for the West in the fight against Russia in Libya by long, the U.S. side has confirmed the General Haftar had contact with Russia.
The Commander Africa command (AFRICOM), Admiral Thomas Waldhauser, late 3/2017 have reported having a relationship “undeniable” between Russia and Libya’s powerful generals Haftar, will make America more concerned about Moscow’s role in Libya.
When asked about the presence of Russian troops in Libya, he Waldhauser insisted “there’s Russia on field in this area”, and reviews the efforts of Russia in order to influence in Libya is worrying.
The Western news agency also reportedly Russia seems to have deployed task force at a base in Western Egypt, near the Libyan border, but Moscow denied this information.
The General’s forces control about 80% of the Haftar the territory of Libya. The character has a pivotal role in the variable itself ousted leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, General Haftar have conducted the campaign against radical Islamic elements as well as many other opposition groups in eastern Libya in over 2 years.
According to the West, Russia is helping eastern Libya was under the control of Gen. Haftar financially and the consolidation of a Central Bank is the “rival” of a Central Bank in Tripoli.
In fact, Russia is helping build the Haftar General State organizations parallel to State organizations that the West support in Western countries. With the wealth and superior military power, force Eastern can will gradually retake the State organization recognized by the West and finally “occupied” the whole of Libya in the near future.
Just as in Syria, no public confrontation between the Western-backed Government in Tripoli and the Russian-backed Government in the East. Both can pretend to provide weapons for his customers, even “naive” sent the army joined the battle against the reason ISIS.
The West acknowledged Russia’s strategy in Libya has progressed well, creating political influence like in the cold war. But the West has not responded effectively. They either do not admit this fact, or can’t do anything apart from the stand of Russia is taking to the Middle East.
The European countries have contributed much in the overthrow of leader Gaddafi in 2011 as Britain and France again are caught up in the other serious problems in the country.
The West fears with success in Libya, Russia will set a pattern for his influence over the Middle East and other countries can extend the influence of the traditional ally of the West in this important area.
Russia has sided with his allies as the administration of President Bashar Al-assad in Syria, and now the same thing, you are advocating Government in Libya and then will probably be President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Egypt.