It seems that Moscow is preparing a pre-emptive decision to toss, can render people cold away from politics of Maidan, which beat Kiev …
The administration of the politicians of the Maidan in Ukraine has warned Moscow that bulk would result, if the Russian national oil and gas group (Gazprom) to stop the supply of gas to Western Europe through Ukrainian territory horizontal path.
“If gas not through Ukraine, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine will occur. Political Europe should understand that, it’s not just the consequences to the economy of Ukraine, where both the geopolitical consequences around the world because of this issue “.
It is the word of Mr. Yuri Vitrenko, commercial Director Energy Group Naftogaz of Ukraine, replied in an interview on Ukrainian TV channels on April 27, 112 of the gas Russia could stop the transit through the territory of Ukraine.
Gas transportation contract signed in 2009 between Kiev and Moscow will expire in 2019. Gazprom group representatives on April 24, said, this agreement will not be renewed under any form whatsoever.
Although Russian gas conglomerate remains unanswered the ability to continue to operate the gas transit, they confirmed this can only take place if Ukraine facilitates appropriate and quality when burning to reduce the transfer to the current volume of 4/5.
It is known that in 2017 with more than 93 billion m3 of gas was transported from Russia to Europe via the Ukrainian territory, accounting for 1/2 of the amount of gas that the countries of the European Union (EU) to buy Gazprom’s-180 billion m3.
However, according to Gazprom’s proposal, then from 2019, after the year of the Russian gas supplied to the EU transits Ukraine only with the word 1/9 to 1/6 mass transit currently and only from 1/18 to 1/12 the amount of Russian gas supply to the EU.
“Now the ball is completely side courtyard of the Ukraine. The Kiev Government has certainly understood the appeal about the economics of a deal “, Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom board Alexander Medvedev said.
Russia wanted to cut the volume of gas transit through Ukraine are is to focus on transport of gas through pipelines flow to the North between Russia and Germany beneath the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream-1), capacity up 55 billion m3 of gas per year.
Besides that Russia is promoting project-Northern Baseball 2 (Nord Stream-2) and flow, in the future will provide gas to Europe through two pipes. In particular, piping the flow to Turkey is being built.
As such, the possibility of gas pipelines from Russia to Western Europe through Ukraine on the margins will be locked van is very high, by the ceo of Gazprom Aleksey Miller, the Russians do not intend to help Ukraine restore its economy at the moment.
World politics Maidan panic
According to the analysis, the world must warn the Russia-Ukraine comprehensive conflict and geopolitical consequences to the entire world because the Russians stop gas transit through Ukriane shows about politics in Ukraine has assumed the Maidan panic.
Firstly, annual Ukraine receive up to 3 billion u.s. dollars from Russia’s gas transit fees. So, according to Gazprom’s proposal, annual economy of Ukraine may lose at least 2.5 billion us dollars, equivalent to 50% of the value of exports of Ukraine to Russia in 2017.
In the current difficult context, the loss from 2.5 billion to 3 billion u.s. dollars is a loss to the economy of Ukraine and the Kiev Government to naturally crazy before Gazprom’s proposal.
The loss of Russian gas transit fee resonate with a range of interests from Russia lost because “the Russian post policy” of the Government Kiev, Yanukovych made climate socio-economic of Ukraine have to suffer consequences too heavily.
On December 11, remember the year 2017, in a move aimed at “pleasing afternoon” Kiev, Moscow has completed a “reshaping” of the southern railway which connected Russia trade with Ukraine-Ukraine economic losses led to 200 million u.s. dollars per year.
According to reviews of the independent expert on the traffic damage, Zakharov tells of Ukraine Aleksey when Russia stopped the operation of rail transport through the territory of transit fee that includes Russia paid to Ukraine.
Besides the loss of the people of Ukraine when job loss and income because they are no longer serving passengers and benefit from the Russian convoys. The local budget in Ukraine also lost currency.
On March 16 the year before 2017, Ukraine also decided to punish 5 Russian bank branch, including Sberbank, VTB and EAST GERMANY are 3 of the 20 financial institutions perform services has the largest trading value in Ukraine.
In the Bank of Russia was punishing Kiev, representing 8.6% combined market share in Ukraine and account balance reaches 1.3 billion-to provide a non-trivial resources for economic entities operate in the context of Ukraine’s financial background of starvation.
Exploit resources from Russia has helped increase the benefits for the people and businesses of Ukraine, which for many of the policies of the Government of Ukraine realization are in life, song about politics Maidan was quickly lost.
When Moscow launched the water goes to the removal of the last remaining interests that Ukraine has to be from “the brothers but Kiev does not want to merge” then about politics and her startled new Maidan “rock chick” martial arts pieces.
Monday, November 14 November in 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned once with German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the risk of Ukraine can-thief in the gas path from Russia to Europe.
After a warning from the head of the Kremlin, Berlin and Moscow have agreed to hold the discussions between representatives of the Russian energy sector, gas giant Gazprom Corporation and the European Commission on this issue.
However, “says must have books, tips must have ” and that is something that Moscow could not clarify the Kiev-Russian gas theft from pipelines for gas supply chain through central EU Ukraine. Open and must issue to it.
Meanwhile, on 28 February, the Court of arbitration in Stockholm has acknowledged prevailing Naftogaz Gazprom on gas transit fees with the amount 4.673 billion u.s. dollars, and Gazprom to pay Ukraine 2.56 billion u.s. dollars, after minus 2 billion u.s. dollars of debt to buy in Kiev Russian gas + interest.
The brothers can cool with EuroMaidan after the owls out blow of Moscow
“From the grievance arbitration, Naftogaz has to meet the requirements of 4.673 billion u.s. dollars in correlation to provide gas transit to European consumers at levels less than specified in the contract” , Gazprom’s announcement.
Gazprom said it disagreed with the Court’s ruling phám to arbitration, the Arbitration Court said that because Stockholm has Naftogaz bias about rising gas transit fees from Russia and Gazprom decided not to renew the contract for gas transit with Kiev.
The non-renewal or re-signing the contract for gas transit Russia transits Ukraine not only in the economy of Ukraine lost revenues cost giant transit but also to outline the face of Kiev in the non-Russian gas theft.
By when does not have when burned, the amount of gas Ukraine transit is provided and consumed will more clearly, at the time the account is “redundant source unknown” that Ukraine would get thousand Kiev can hardly explain.
It seems that Moscow is preparing to kick the blow decided to beat Kiev, but not because of political strife, that is because the Government of Ukraine is acting makes “brothers far from” cool politics with Maidan.
And it is said to cause political Maidan really panic!